Rising prostate cancer incidence in Africa: socioeconomic impact implications and 25-year projection

Abstract

Background: Prostate cancer is the most common male malignancy globally, with a disproportionately high burden in Africa and negative quality of life and economic consequences, as well as premature mortality.

Methods: This study uses Global Cancer Observatory 2022 data on prostate cancer (International classification of diseases [ICD]-10 C61) from 48 African countries to estimate incidence and mortality and to project future trends to 2050. Incidence and mortality predictions were based on constant 2022 national rates applied to population growth projections. Economic productivity losses were calculated using International Labour Organisation statistics and remaining years of productive life before age 65.

Results: In 2022, there were an estimated 103,050 new prostate cancer cases and 58,890 deaths in Africa, accounting for 8.7% of all cancers. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 30.3 and 17.3 per 100,000, respectively, with the highest rates observed in Southern, Middle, and West Africa. By 2050, prostate cancer cases are projected to increase by 173.7%, reaching 282,005 new cases annually, with the steepest rise in countries such as Equatorial Guinea, Zambia, and Cape Verde. Prostate cancer was among the top cancers contributing to economic productivity loss in four of five African regions, with West Africa recording an average of 32.2 years of productive life lost compared to a world average of 9.4 years.

Conclusions: Prostate cancer burden in Africa is expected to nearly triple by 2050, driven by demographic expansion and ageing. Strengthening early detection, access to care, and targeted health policies are required to address this growing challenge and mitigate productivity losses.